3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast Feb. 4 Feb. 5 Feb. 6 3-4 (G0) 2-3 (G0) 2 (G0) Max Kp M-Lat   15% H-Lat   45% M-Lat   05% H-Lat   30% M-Lat   01% H-Lat   20% Probabilities Latest SWPC Forecast (@ 00:30 + 12:30 UTC) Current Moon Phase: 41% Illumination Waxing Crescent

Flare Events (M2+) Past 48 Hours M3.2 AR 3977 2/4/25 @ 13:13 UTC M4.7 AR 3981 2/4/25 @ 11:21 UTC M2.6 AR 3981 2/4/25 @ 01:48 UTC M4.3 AR 3981 2/3/25 @ 18:36 UTC M6.1 AR 3981 2/3/25 @ 13:18 UTC M2.5 AR 3981 2/3/25 @ 07:44 UTC M3.1 AR 3981 2/3/25 @ 05:47 UTC 10cm Radio Burst   (1m, 220 sfu) M8.8 AR 3981 2/3/25 @ 03:58 UTC M4.1 AR 3981 2/2/25 @ 23:24 UTC

Visible Sunspot Regions     AR 3984 BG N16W15 - AR 3983 A N06E61 - AR 3982 B N22E05 Stable AR 3981 BGD N05E09 Growing AR 3978 BG N11W02 Stable AR 3977 BG N19W14 Stable AR 3976 BG N13W12 Stable AR 3974 B S17W34 Declining Updated @ 00:45 UTC (February 4)

CME Tracking No Event(s) Logged Cactus  |  SEEDS (GMU) 48 Hour Coronagraph (GSFC)

Farside Watch Updated @ 23:45 UTC (November 25) Out of date due to JSOC outage. Latest Image  |  JSOC  |  STEREO

AIA Composite Filaments + Coronal Holes. Latest AIA Composite

X-Rays Current Global D-LAYER Absorption Current Solar Flare Threat C-Flare: 99% M-Flare: 85% X-Flare: 20% Proton: 15%

Geomagnetic Field and Aurora Past 24 Hours Quiet Auroral Oval Forecast | South Pole Kp-Index | A-Indices | Magnetometers

Latest Space Weather News Near X-Flare February 3, 2025 @ 04:15 UTC A solar flare measuring M8.8 was just detected around AR 3981 peaking at 03:58 UTC (Feb 3). This is the strongest flare yet from this region in terms of peak X-Ray flux. The flare itself was impulsive and will likely not be the source of a noteworthy coronal mass ejection. More flaring will remain likely around the region as it continues to expand in both size and magnetic complexity. Space Weather Update February 2, 2025 @ 14:15 UTC (UPDATED) Solar activity increased even further on Sunday morning with now six M-Flares and counting. The largest so far was a rapid M5.1 at 14:04 UTC (Feb 2) around AR 3977. AR 3981 located in the northeast quadrant is growing rapidly and chipped in with a few M-Flares including an M3.0 flare at 10:12 UTC. That event was associated with a Type II radio emission, but so far a CME related to this event does not appear evident. Stay tuned for more updates. Coronal Hole Stream February 1, 2025 @ 13:10 UTC A solar wind stream flowing from tomahawk shaped coronal hole #11 is now moving past Earth around 600 km/s. Currently active (Kp4) geomagnetic activity is being observed at higher latitudes. With any help from the interplanetary magnetic field, minor (G1) storm conditions could still be observed at some point on Saturday. Also notice a pair of filaments currently located in the southern hemisphere. For now they remain magnetically anchored in place. Image by SDO/AIA. M6.7 Solar Flare / CME Likely January 31, 2025 @ 14:25 UTC (UPDATED) A moderately strong solar flare measuring M6.7 (R2 Radio Blackout) was detected at 14:06 UTC (Jan 31). The source was AR 3978 with interaction between AR 3976 located in the northeast quadrant. The event is associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 280 solar flux units (SFU) and lasting 14 minutes. A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 673 km/s was recorded. AIA 193 imagery shows plasma movement following the event so a coronal mass ejection (CME) will be likely. The trajectory should be mostly to the east, however updated coronagraph imagery will be required to determine if an Earth directed component is associated. Stay tuned for updates. CME UPDATE: As I suspected, the long duration M6.7 solar flare around AR 3978 did produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) that is heading to the northeast and likely away from Earth. There is currently a gap in available imagery courtesy of LASCO C3, however STEREO Ahead COR2 does capture the CME in full. Click HERE for video. Another update will be provided once LASCO C3 imagery is backfilled should a faint Earth directed component be associated. Space Weather Update January 31, 2025 @ 12:30 UTC Good morning and welcome to the final day of January. Below is a look at the eastern half of the visible solar disk, including the large sector of sunspots comprised of at least three or more separate active regions in the northeast quadrant. New spot growth was observed to the north of AR 3976 and 3978 and they appear to be magnetically independent from the other regions. It is possible that at least one of those groups could receive their own active region status. Regardless, the threat for M-Class solar flares has increased to 55% according to the latest SWPC update with AR 3976 being the most likely source.