3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast August 16 August 17 August 18 2-3 (G0) 3-4 (G0) 4-5 (G1) Max Kp M-Lat   05% H-Lat   25% M-Lat   15% H-Lat   50% M-Lat   30% H-Lat   55% Probabilities Latest SWPC Forecast (@ 00:30 + 12:30 UTC) Current Moon Phase: 86% Illumination Waxing Gibbous

Flare Events (M2+) Past 48 Hours M5.3 E Limb 8/14/24 @ 15:49 UTC X1.1 AR 3784 8/14/24 @ 06:37 UTC Type II RE (516 km/s) 10cm (500 sfu) M4.4 AR 3777 8/14/24 @ 04:02 UTC

Visible Sunspot Regions     AR 3790 B S14E72 - AR 3789 B N--E-- Growing AR 3788 BG S07E09 Declining AR 3786 B S22W54 Stable AR 3785 B S12W06 Declining AR 3784 BGD N15W19 Declining AR 3782 A N03W44 Declining AR 3781 A N15W69 Declining AR 3780 BGD S09W74 Declining Updated @ 00:45 UTC (August 16)

CME Tracking No Event(s) Logged Cactus  |  SEEDS (GMU)

Farside Watch Updated @ 23:45 UTC (August 15) Latest Image  |  JSOC  |  STEREO

AIA Composite Filaments + Coronal Holes. Latest AIA Composite

X-Rays Current Global D-LAYER Absorption Current Solar Flare Threat C-Flare: 99% M-Flare: 75% X-Flare: 20% Proton: 15%

Geomagnetic Field and Aurora Past 24 Hours Unsettled Auroral Oval Forecast | South Pole Kp-Index | A-Indices | Magnetometers

Latest Space Weather News X-Flare! August 14, 2024 @ 06:40 UTC (UPDATED) A long duration X1.1 solar flare was just observed around AR 3784 peaking at 06:39 UTC (Aug 14). The active region is currently directly facing Earth and this event may be eruptive based on the latest imagery courtesy of SDO/AIA 093a. More details to follow. UPDATE: Coronagraph imagery following the X1 flare is starting to slowly come in and the prospect of a noteworthy CME does not look good. A CME following an earlier M-Flare off the west limb at 04:02 UTC is visible, however only the very faintest of CME is seen emerging after the X1 and it is barely visible, at least in the imagery that is currently available. More updates later today. UPDATE #2: An updated CME tracking model is showing that the CME associated with the X1.1 flare early Wednesday morning will pass Earth.... eventually. The faint, slow moving plasma cloud is predicted to reach our planet by August 18th. A weak impact may generate aurora at higher latitudes, but I do not expect much in the way of a geomagnetic storm. More updates regarding this on the weekend. Naked Eye Sunspots / Space Weather Update August 13, 2024 @ 19:40 UTC While driving to work early this morning with the help of a morning haze, the Sun was a nice shade of pink with two large sunspots clearly visible to the naked eye. The main dark core of AR 3780 and also AR 3784 are both easy targets for solar observers. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. AR 3784 showed signs of growth and produced most of the flare activity as well, including an M1 flare at 17:29 UTC (Aug 13). Isolated M-Flares will remain a possibility with both AR 3780 and 3784 being the most likely source. Geomagnetic activity gradually declined to quiet levels as the Bz/IMF component of the solar wind settled into a north pointing position. The prospects for storming tonight appear to be dwindling, unless we get a little help from the Bz or an unexpected shock passage. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather news and information. Storm Update August 13, 2024 @ 01:00 UTC Will you see the northern lights tonight if you live in North America? Well, if you live in Canada, and the northern tier of the United States, it is possible, but now a little less likely for widespread displays. The problem is that the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has now shifted back to the north, a condition known to suppress geomagnetic activity. It will likely take a solid shift back to the south to get the Kp back up to the strong (G3) level. For now minor (G1) storming remains in in the forecast with a chance for moderate (G2) storming depending on the state of the solar wind. For viewers located further south in the USA, let us hope that the Bz swings back to the south for a while. It does not hurt to at least take a look just in case. Short lived displays of aurora do happen, even at lower latitudes. Geomagnetic Storm Continues (G4) Severe August 12, 2024 @ 11:40 UTC (UPDATED) Moderate (G2) to Strong (G3) storm conditions continue as the Bz/IMF component of the solar wind has been stuck in a south pointing position for several hours. This is likely the result of a number of coronal mass ejections passing near or past Earth. Reports of visible aurora appear to be fairly widespread across northern Europe and parts of North America. A strong (G3) storm watch remains in effect until 15:00 UTC (Aug 12). Further updates will be provided as the day progresses in regards to the latest geomagnetic conditions. UPDATE: The Severe (G4) geomagentic storm threshold was reached at 14:42 UTC (Aug 12). Aurora sky watchers across Europe should be alert once dark outside. Sky watchers across North America should stay tuned. Have aurora photos from the current storm? Please send to kevin@solarcycle24.com to share with my viewers. ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9- Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 12 1442 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe The photo below was captured last night by Chris Thomas from Lindesnes, Norway. Nice shot and thanks for sharing!